TurtleDock
ExamEdge · Feature

A projected rank, with the uncertainty stated

The ExamEdge rank predictor projects a likely rank range from your mock history, the historical relationship between scores and ranks for your exam, and the size of the candidate pool. It reports a range with its confidence, never a single number.

A projection is not a prediction. It cannot know this year’s paper difficulty or cohort, and anyone offering you a specific rank is selling certainty that does not exist.

Rank predictors are the most oversold feature in exam preparation. A single confident number is enormously appealing and almost entirely fictional, because the two largest inputs — this year’s paper difficulty and this year’s cohort — are unknown until after the exam.

Output
A range, with confidence stated
Inputs
Your mocks, historical score-to-rank, pool size
Cannot know
This year’s paper or cohort
Narrows
As you sit more mocks
01

What a range means and how to read it

A projection of 4,000–11,000 is not the system being unhelpful. It is an honest statement that your mock performance is consistent with that span given historical variation, and that narrowing it further would require inventing precision.

The range narrows as you sit more mocks, because a consistent score across eight papers carries far more information than a good one across two. It never becomes a point.

02

What to actually use it for

One decision, mostly: whether the gap between where you are and where you need to be is closeable in the time remaining. A candidate projecting far outside their target with three months left has a strategy question, not a motivation one.

What it is not for is daily reassurance. Checking a projected rank every evening is a way of feeling like you are working, and it moves in response to noise.

FAQ

Questions people ask

Phrased the way they arrive, answered so each one stands on its own.

How accurate is a rank predictor?

Accurate enough to indicate a range, not a rank. The two biggest determinants — this year’s paper difficulty and this year’s cohort — are unknown until after the exam, so any single-number prediction is overstating what is knowable.

Why is my predicted range so wide?

Usually because you have sat few mocks, or your scores vary a lot between them. The range reflects genuine uncertainty; narrowing it artificially would make it less honest, not more useful.

Should I check it often?

No. It moves in response to noise and checking it daily is a substitute for working. Once a month, or after a run of mocks, is enough to inform a strategy decision.

Related

Read next

Provenance

Who checked this, and against what

Accountability

Checked by the Product desk on 1 September 2026. Corrections go in the page, dated, rather than quietly.

No call required

Tell us your enrolment, we will tell you the number.

Pricing is on the page, in the open, with the counting rule written next to it. Nobody has to book a call to find out what it costs.

See pricing

Bring your own structure. We configure it live on the call.

Forty minutes with an implementation engineer — your classes, your fee heads, your grading scheme, entered as we go. No slides, no sample school.